Market commentary

It may initially seem a stretch to claim the financial quality of your retirement beyond 2026 might depend on the outcome of some heroic assumptions about Hyperscaler artificial intelligence (AI) cash flows.

But is it?

Equity markets, and especially investors in U.S. stocks – of which there is a record number investing a record amount – are ignoring a litany of concerns. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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Recently, in an AXIOS email with the subject line, “Not too late,” the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) wrote, “The White House, Congress and the country’s leading AI companies have allowed AI to grow faster, stronger, more powerful and wildly lucrative (and dangerous), with no serious effort to control it or spread the benefits beyond the super-wealthy, Axios CEO Jim VandeHei writes in a “Behind the Curtain” column. It’s not too late to change this. But if they all dither, duck, or dance around it, the chances of AI worst-case scenarios will explode, likely early next year, according to almost everyone we talk to privately who truly understands AI.” continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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When the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields pierced five per cent on September 14, they reached their highest level since October 2023, and signalled a potential conflict between sovereign debt realities and a relentlessly optimistic equity market. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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In financial markets, it’s said history doesn’t repeat, but it frequently rhymes. The recent bond market moves seem to reflect a market rhyming with the 2023 bond tantrum, threatening to disrupt everything from home mortgages and corporate credit to government financing and equity valuations.

U.S. Treasury yields have broken out of what has widely been described as a multi-year range, pushing the benchmark U.S.10-year yield toward 5.00 per cent. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary.

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I joined Jess Maguire on ABC Statewide Drive to discuss rising U.S. interest rates and bond yields, what is driving them, and the potential flow-on effects for Australia. We also explored government debt, artificial intelligence (AI) investment, equity markets and what higher borrowing costs could mean for investors.

Listen from 1:43:51 here: ABC Statewide Drive 

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary, Radio.

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I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz to discuss rising U.S. bond yields and what higher interest rates could mean for markets. We also explored growing U.S. government debt, competition for capital from the artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure boom, and the warning signs to watch across mortgages, highly leveraged companies and credit markets.

Watch here: The $40 trillion debt problem facing U.S. markets 

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, TV Appearances.

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In recent months, the chart shown in Figure 1., has been doing the rounds, inspiring fear among some observers that a stock market crash is imminent. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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• POSTED IN Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation

July and August 2026 have delivered a useful reminder that even the strongest investment narratives eventually collide with economics.

According to The Wall Street Journal, US momentum stocks suffered one of their worst stretches in decades. Bank of America noted July 2026 was one of the worst months for momentum trading in nearly forty years.

As artificial intelligence (AI)-related equities suffered their violent reversal, some of the market’s most popular semiconductor and memory names fell extraordinarily quickly. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Manufacturing, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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Billionaire philanthropist Bill Gates has waded into the artificial intelligence (AI) debate again, this time with a near-6,000-word essay on the transition to the AI era, describing it as one of the most turbulent periods in human history, and warning, “AI is improving faster than anyone expected…and could begin to act against our interests and we could lose control.”

While AI carries enormous potential to improve lives, Gates says the world is currently underprepared for the speed with which it will impact us socially, politically, and economically.

In his latest essay published on his website GatesNotes.com, Gates writes, “The transition to the AI era will be one of the most turbulent times in human history. Right now, we are not preparing adequately for that transition,” adding, “in terms of equity, AI will either be the greatest equalizer ever invented, or the worst source of injustice.” continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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In this video, I discuss why we see the build-out of AI in Australia as an investable opportunity, from the infrastructure supporting it to the businesses positioned to benefit. I also explain our approach to investing early, starting with smaller positions and increasing exposure as potential winners emerge.

by Gary Rollo Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Popular, Small Caps, Video Insights.

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