Market commentary

The four horsemen of the Apocalypse are Conquest, War, Famine, and Death. Artificial intelligence (AI) has ‘Conquered’; in the Middle East, ‘War’ is underway and could take years to resolve, and changes afoot in enterprise-level AI spending would be akin to ‘Famine’ for AI hyperscalers that have spent trillions on scaling out the technology. All that awaits is the ‘Death’ of the AI bubble. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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Bullish investors believe AI is a new, infinite fourth factor of a nation’s production and wealth creation. In the past, we had labour, capital and land as production inputs, all of which were, of course, finite. Land provided the raw materials, labour the muscle and the mind to transform them, and capital was the tool.

Enter AI. The transformative aspect of this fourth ingredient is that, unlike the physical limitations of land or the finite hours of the human workforce, data is a resource that is functionally unlimited. And, importantly, it’s the only factor of production that actually grows more abundant the more we use it.

This article was first published in The Australian on 27 May 2026.

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets, In the Press, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Popular, Technology & Telecommunications.

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I joined Niav Owens on ABC Newcastle Mornings to discuss what history tells us about oil-price spikes and share markets, and why falling oil prices are not always positive for equities. We also explored the growing excitement around SpaceX, including the bullish case for the company, concerns about its proposed IPO structure, and why investors should be cautious of getting caught up in market hype. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary, Radio.

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In this week’s video insight, I take a closer look at the upcoming SpaceX IPO and some of the concerns being raised by critics. While many investors expect the listing to be a major success, I explore questions around the company’s unprecedented valuation, the folding of other Elon Musk ventures into SpaceX, rule changes that could accelerate its inclusion in major indices, and whether forced buying by index funds may help drive the share price higher. I also discuss the risk that early investors and insiders could benefit most, while everyday investors are left carrying the long-term risks. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Video Insights.

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I joined Jess Maguire on ABC Statewide Drive to discuss what rising oil prices and the conflict in the Middle East could mean for markets. We looked at historical data showing that past oil-price peaks have often been followed by weaker share markets, and also explored the growing excitement around SpaceX, including the opportunities and risks for investors considering investing in the company.

Tune in from 1:46:33 here: ABC Statewide Drive continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Energy / Resources, Global markets, Market commentary, Radio.

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Inflation seems to be the topic du joúr. Perhaps surprisingly, however, is the variety of opinions, even on the same day.

Economists, strategists and analysts don’t seem to be able to agree on anything regarding inflation (except for the current number), even on the same day (in this case, today the 28th of May 2026) – even when presented with the same data.  

Here is just a small selection of comments about inflation that arrived in my inbox this morning, and as you will see, facts are open to interpretation. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.

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I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz today to discuss why global equity markets may be closer to a peak than many investors expect. We explored the historical link between oil-price spikes and weaker share markets, why even strong artificial intelligence (AI) –driven earnings growth may not protect valuations in a higher-rate environment, and how the excitement surrounding SpaceX is pushing many listed “proxy” space stocks into hyper-exponential territory untethered from fundamentals.

You can watch via Ausbiz here: Global equities may be closer to a peak than many investors expect

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications, TV Appearances.

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In this week’s video insight, I explore the growing debate around whether AI stocks are in a bubble by revisiting a strikingly familiar research note published during the DotCom era in 1999. At the time, investors were told there were “good reasons to pay through the nose” for leading technology stocks because their growth and disruptive potential made “this time different.” Drawing on my own experience working through the DotCom bubble, I reflect on how speculative excess can continue far longer than expected before eventually unwinding, often with devastating consequences for investors. While today’s artificial intelligence (AI) leaders may have strong fundamentals, history reminds us that every bubble comes with a compelling narrative that sounds convincing in the moment. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Investing Education, Market commentary, Video Insights.

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Australia and the United States (U.S.) currently have one thing in common. 

Consumer confidence is in a world of pain. 

In the U.S., the Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) has fallen to the lowest level ever recorded since the University of Michigan began tracking the data in 1952.

The Index, see Graph 1. and Table 1. below, hit 44.8 in May 2026, as Americans fear inflation, rising fuel costs, economic instability associated with the Iran War and the worry artificial intelligence (AI) will take white collar jobs.

When I look at the U.S. inflation rate – which was 3.8 per cent for the year to April 2026 – and the U.S. Federal Funds Rate at 3.75 per cent, I again point out a significant anomaly. continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.

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While it may not inform your investing decisions, it’s undeniably enjoyable to look at what bulls were saying during a previous bubble and comparing those comments to what is being said today.

In this post, I compare the statements from the latest post of stock market bull Ed Yardeni, and the statements made in the April 1999 Merrill Lynch report entitled ‘e-Commerce: Virtually Here’.  

Published on 8 April, 1999, the section beginning on Page 13 and titled The Epicenter, was authored by Henry Blodget. According to The Guardian, “As the dotcom bubble was rapidly expanding in the late 1990s and early 2000s, Blodget was arguably the world’s most famous financial analyst, named Institutional Investor’s “all-star” analyst three years running and taking home a salary of US$12m from Merrill Lynch.” continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary.

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