Market commentary

The bond market is currently grappling with significant turbulence, driven by a confluence of fiscal, monetary, and geopolitical factors. Investors are shying away from bonds, particularly U.S. Treasurys, as yields climb and uncertainty mounts. This article explores what’s happening in the bond market, why it’s occurring, and the implications for equity markets in both the short and long term, offering guidance for investors navigating this challenging landscape. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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Global financial markets are enjoying a period of relative calm, with investors seemingly unperturbed by the unpredictability of U.S. President Donald Trump’s second term. The spectre of a trade war between the United States and China, which once loomed large, has, for now, receded, with optimism about deregulation and tax cuts replacing those concerns. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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Fast-food and drive-thru sales are powerful gauges of an economy’s health because they capture real-time consumer behaviour, particularly among lower and middle-income households. Unlike government data or consumer confidence surveys, which can be delayed or skewed by sentiment rather than action, fast-food sales reflect what people are actually doing with their money. continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Market commentary.

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Twenty years ago, U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders delivered a powerful explanation of a political tactic used to persuade voters to support policies that benefit the wealthy, often at the expense of their own interests. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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The U.S. Copyright Office recently released a detailed report on the complex issue of using copyrighted materials to train artificial intelligence (AI) models, which has sparked heated debate in the tech and creative industries. However, the report’s measured recommendations were overshadowed by the Trump administration’s swift dismissal of the office’s director. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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The U.S. economy and stock market are teetering, according to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones. Together, they warn that aggressive tariffs and a cautious monetary policy result in the economy and market facing heightened inflation risks, unemployment, and a downturn. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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With the U.S. economic picture deteriorating, you might be wondering why the market is rallying. It’s simple if you remember that hope springs eternal.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s first chaotic days in office have been economically disruptive, thanks to a whirlwind 143 executive orders, a tornado of declared emergencies, and tariffs heralding a trade war – particularly the 135 per cent levy on Chinese imports. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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The recent relief rally in the S&P 500 is welcome, but is it sustainable? The stock market’s vulnerability is a weakness in Trump’s arsenal against China, and it’s also a barometer of his popularity. Meanwhile, the market and the U.S. economy are heavily reliant on consumer spending, with personal consumption expenditures accounting for approximately 70 per cent of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP), according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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The global economy faces a complex landscape as trade tensions between the United States and China persist, threatening economic stability. This week, Ric Deverell, the highly regarded Chief Economist at Macquarie, shared insights on the potential for a U.S. recession, the resilience of China’s economy, and the ripple effects on global markets, including Australia and Europe. Our interpretation of his comments follows, and where data is independently available, we have provided that data along with sources. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Foreign Currency, Global markets, Market commentary.

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For years I have abided by the idea that gold is useless. As Charles Munger noted; if you buy an ounce of gold today, at the end of eternity, you will still own an ounce of gold. With no industrial use and producing no income, Munger’s partner, Warren Buffett, noted gold is only good for doing two things: ‘looking and fondling’. They are right in the sense that, without any ability to compound or any commercial value, buying gold is a bet that others will subsequently buy gold at a higher price. In that sense, buying gold is speculation rather than investing.

I remain convinced, buying gold is, and will always be, a bet on fear. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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