Market commentary

There’s a consistent view of the consumer emerging from Australia’s Financial year 2026 (FY26) retail reporting season.

Households haven’t stopped spending, but they’ve become more selective, more value-conscious and increasingly willing to postpone discretionary purchases or wait for promotions and sales.

The pressure is most evident in big-ticket categories like furniture, appliances, and homewares. Nick Scali (ASX:NCK) noted a significant decline in store traffic late in the year; JB Hi-Fi (ASX:JBH) mentioned that customers are focusing their purchases around major sales; and Temple & Webster (ASX:TPW) said that while browsing continues, customers are delaying their buying decisions. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary, Economics, Editor's Pick, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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I joined Jess Maguire on ABC Statewide Drive to discuss why traditional approaches to diversification may no longer offer investors the same protection they once did. We explored how persistent inflation has changed the relationship between shares and bonds, the growing concentration of global share markets in a handful of artificial intelligence (AI) linked companies, and why investors may need to diversify beyond traditional asset classes and markets by considering a broader range of investment strategies.

Listen to the full segment from 1:46:20 – ABC Statewide Drive continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Radio.

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I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz to discuss why traditional approaches to diversification may no longer provide the same protection for investors. We explored persistent inflation, growing concentration in equity markets, the risks emerging around AI and hyperscaler spending, and why investors may need to look beyond the traditional 60/40 portfolio towards alternative strategies, including private credit.

Watch the full episode on Ausbiz here: Why Roger thinks 60/40 diversification is dead continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Economics, Investing Education, Market commentary, TV Appearances.

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In recent days, we have seen three ASX listed companies receive offers by private equity, and in each case, it appears their ownership will likely head overseas. 

I Squared Capital

New York based “Sophisticated and long-term infrastructure investor”, I Squared Capital has bid $1.70 per share for oOh!media Limited (ASX: OML), thus valuing the company at over $1.0 billion in Enterprise Value (EV), including the $130 million of net debt as at June 2026. continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Companies, Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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While the debate continues over whether the artificial intelligence (AI) thematic is a bubble, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq continue to climb a wall of worry. You’d think this would cause at least some of the AI sceptics to throw in the towel, but if anything, it has reinforced their resolve and reinforced their scepticism.

One of the most vocal is English author and tech columnist Ed Zitron.

In a recent interview with Adam Taggart, Zitron dismantled the core promises of the AI boom, suggesting current Large Language Models (LLMs) are an unsustainable, highly subsidised circular economy that fails to solve basic business problems. He also highlights immediate balance sheet pressures, and extreme market concentration. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Manufacturing, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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Despite the utterings from our senior politicians when discussing Australia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), this figure takes neither the rate of inflation, nor our population growth into consideration.

When our real GDP per capita for the June 2026 Quarter is released on Wednesday 2 September, I am concerned we will see another negative number, delivering lower living standards for Australians, as experienced over recent years. continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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It’s the question on every investor’s mind: are the hyperscalers spending too much on their infrastructure buildout such that they won’t generate a satisfactory return on capital?

Investors are furiously debating whether the Hyperscalers are overspending.

Recently, ‘Lloyd’ commented on a Livewire blog post about the subject, stating the following: continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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How much do the artificial intelligence (AI) hyperscalers’ businesses need to make from selling their AI tools in order to generate a decent return?

The debate surrounding the Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) for big tech’s massive AI infrastructure expansion revolves around a core question: How much end-user revenue is required to cover hardware depreciation, energy costs, and capital costs?

With hyperscaler capital expenditure (capex) on track to surpass US$600 billion- $800 billion annually, several prominent analysts, venture capital firms, and investment banks have published frameworks and scenarios to quantify the revenue needed for a reasonable return.

Here are a handful. You can decide whether the targets are likely to be met. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Investing Education, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.

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The S&P 500 has once again notched fresh record highs, surging more than 13 per cent year-to-date (YTD) and comfortably outpacing its historical average annual return. Driving the rally is a combination of robust earnings, apparently stabilising geopolitical friction, and the relentless build-out of artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.

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Since Labor’s 2026 federal budget changes were handed down, Australia’s property market – particularly suburbs across Sydney and Melbourne – has experienced sharp price corrections.

While property commentators spent early 2026 tracking a largely flat, sideways trend in capital city housing (hovering around the $1.81M to $1.83M median mark in Sydney), the post-budget landscape has delivered a rude shock.

For homeowners who, for years, sacrificed and scrimped to save a 10 to 20 per cent deposit and then purchased or refinanced during 2025 or early 2026, these price falls are no longer just abstract paper losses – they represent a devastating hit to their wealth and equity. Indeed, all they’ve saved has been wiped out in a matter of months. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Investing Education, Market commentary.

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