Market commentary

The Magnificent Seven (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla), which rose by an average 111 per cent over calendar 2023, continued the strong upward trajectory, increasing a further 63 per cent, on average, over calendar 2024.
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by David Buckland Posted in Market commentary.

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Massive demands on liquidity from the refinancing of about US$70 trillion of global debt taken up when interest rates were zero would leave less liquidity to sustain the rally in shares, bitcoin and everything else. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press, Market commentary.

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I had the opportunity to join Sean Aylmer on the Fear + Greed podcast to reflect on my predictions for 2024 and discuss what lies ahead in 2025. This year, despite widespread forecasts of a recession, the stock market performed strongly. A combination of disinflation and positive economic growth created a favourable environment for innovative companies with pricing power. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Podcast Channel.

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As Christmas approaches and we gradually unplug from the frenzied activity of another year, I’d like to leave you with a brief summary of the year that was, provide some guidance on what 2025 might bring and offer you my prayers for a safe and peaceful Christmas. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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At the beginning of 2024, investors and commentators were almost unified in their belief that after a solid 2023, more modest returns were likely. An article in the Australian Financial Review (AFR) at the beginning of the year described the market thus: “An inexplicable and self-perpetuating melt-up that veteran analysts unanimously agree defies the fundamentals is powering the broader index to all-time highs.” continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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According to multiple commentators and outlets reporting on those commentators, the equity market is now at a euphoric level – officially. Evidently, there’s a measure for euphoria produced by Callum Thomas, the founder of Topdowncharts, in Queenstown, New Zealand. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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If you haven’t yet, read Bored apes and bananas – Part 1

Since the beginning of the year, some commentators have voiced concerns that equity valuations have become historically stretched. Thanks to the rally in technology stocks, Wall Street’s major indices have displayed historically high valuation metrics such as the cyclically adjusted price-earnings (CAPE) shiller ratio. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary.

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John Templeton famously observed; bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on scepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.

With several commentators now labelling markets euphoric, the call for a correction is becoming louder. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary.

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One of the most frequently asked questions by investors following Trump’s election victory is: what sectors will do well? While much remains unknowable about Trump’s second term, his “promises made, promises kept” statement during his victory speech suggests not all is a mystery.  continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Market commentary.

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We first published this blog back in August, but that might have been a little premature. With the U.S. voting for their next president in 24 hours, we think publishing today is more timely. Enjoy. 

While the U.S. presidential campaign is entertaining to watch from afar (and more than a little disturbing this time around), spare a thought for our friends in the U.S. who have to sort through the rhetoric, lies, and assassination attempts to select their leader for the next four years. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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