Market commentary

There’s some early evidence the equity boom is entering a bubble phase.

Bubbles can last and keep inflating for a long time. Missing out can be costly, but predicting the exact moment of a bubble’s demise is a waste of time. So, the right strategy isn’t prediction but rebalancing and a little tactical asset allocation. That way, you can remain invested and still outperform, if only relatively, even if markets pull back.

This article was first published in The Australian on 05 August 2025. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press, Market commentary.

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• POSTED IN In the Press, Market commentary

Parts of America’s industrial heartland are being transformed, and smokestacks and steel mills are being replaced by the scream of Graphic Proocessing Units (GPUs) housed inside concrete bunkers known as data centres. The transformation of parts of the U.S., such as Pennsylvania, is being mirrored globally as the world’s biggest tech names pour hundreds of billions into the physical infrastructure powering artificial intelligence. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Investing Education, Market commentary.

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With markets hitting record highs, debt warnings echoing, and artificial intelligence (AI) reshaping everything, there’s plenty to unpack. Here’s a quick look at four key topics of investor conversations.

Ray Dalio’s debt warning and the case for gold and bitcoin

The billionaire founder of hedge fund leviathan Bridgewater Associates, Ray Dalio, is a man fond of predicting recessions and crises. His are a reminder that in order to be an accurate forecaster, you merely have to forecast often. Eventually, you’ll be right, just as a stopped clock is right twice a day. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market commentary.

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In 2025, the U.S. enacted the most significant trade policy shift in decades, with average tariffs rising from roughly 2.4 per cent in January to approximately 18–20 per cent by August, levels not seen since the 1930s.

In some cases, duties on Chinese imports have exceeded 50 per cent, marking a sharp departure from the stable global trade arrangements of recent decades. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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Financial markets are riding a wave of bullish enthusiasm, with stocks, cryptocurrencies, and other speculative assets soaring to new heights. Fueled by optimism around cooling inflation, robust corporate earnings, and the transformative potential of artificial intelligence (AI), the rally has pushed valuations to levels some are saying is reminiscent of the 1999/2000 dot-com era. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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There’s a lot going on in cryptocurrency markets and while many still dismiss them as a fad, recent announcements and enacted legislation in the U.S., demands investors begin to pay attention to the emerging asset class, if they haven’t already. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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Last week, I attended an Australian housing market update from Eliza Owen, Head of Research at Cotality (formerly Core Logic). Below are some key insights that I thought were worth highlighting. continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Market commentary, Property.

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• POSTED IN Market commentary, Property

With apologies to William Shakespeare, signs of a bit of froth and frenzy have begun to be acknowledged in markets this last week. As we have previously noted, liquidity is the fuel for such episodes, and as long as liquidity remains abundant, we should expect more, rather than less, evidence of irrationality. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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The Whyalla Steelworks was established in 1941 and employs 1,100 people. The Mount Isa copper smelter was established in 1953 and employs 550 people, and the Townsville refinery was established in 1959 and employs 500 people. Without enormous government subsidisation, all three businesses look like they will follow the Exxon Mobile refinery, Oceana Glass and plastics makers, Qenos and Trident, into oblivion. continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Energy / Resources, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Property.

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• POSTED IN Energy / Resources, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Property

Financial markets are acting like a friend who says one thing but does another. Investors are sending conflicting messages about the economy, interest rates, and what’s coming next.

The mixed signals

Investors are betting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by up to two per cent over this easing cycle. Trump of course, always the glutton, wants even more. That’s a big deal – rate cuts of this size usually happen when the economy is in trouble or heading into a recession. Lower rates make borrowing cheaper, encouraging spending and investment to boost a slowing economy. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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